March Madness Predictions

First let me get the rant off my chest, and I know I'm overly biased, but...How in the world is Butler a #7 seed? Really, a 7? Are you serious? What was the committee thinking? Let me quickly play the numbers game (from the IndyStar). Last year, Butler made the tourney as an at-large team with a 5 seed. This year a 7. Here are their stats.

"Last year, heading into the tournament, Butler was 27-6 with a No. 21 national ranking, No. 27 RPI, 7-3 record against the top 100 and 11-4 record away from home. This year's corresponding figures are 29-3, No. 12 ranking, No. 16 RPI, 10-3 and 15-2."

A better overall record, a higher national rank, a better RPI, better top 100 record (with all 3 losses in this group), and better away/neutral record. Yet somehow, the committee feels they are a worse team. I'm shocked by this. I can only hope that this gets Butler to play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and they take care of business against South Alabama. Note, not only do they get a 7 seed, but they play South Alabama IN Alabama...wow. Then get arguably the best 2 seed in the field in Tennessee in the second round. Ok, I'm done complaining, I simply just don't understand it.

Here are my predictions:

1) All 4 number ones won't make the final four. It's never happened, and it won't happen this year.

2) First rd upsets: 11 St. Josephs over 6 OK, 10 Davidson over 7 Gonzaga, 11 Kentucky over 6 Marquette, 10 St. Marys over 7 Miami (FL) [8-9 matchups don't count as upsets]

3) 12 over 5 upset special (it seems to happen every year), Western Kentucky over Drake (partially out of spite, but it isn't a bad choice)

4) The Big East is overrated and crazily got 8 teams in the dance. However, the Big East will be out before the Elite 8. (potential exceptions being Louisville and Georgetown, but I have them losing).

5) Surprise Sweet 16 appearances: 7 Butler, 6 Purdue

6) Surprise Elite 8 appearances: 7 Butler, 4 Vanderbilt, 3 Wisconsin

7) My Final Four: 1 UNC, 3 Wisconsin, 2 Texas, 1 UCLA (NOTE: I never, ever, get the final four right)

8) National Championship: UNC defeats Texas by 7

9) First number 1 to lose: Kansas, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Memphis.

10) I'm guessing that 80% of these predictions are wrong (including this one).

There you have it. If you haven't filled out your bracket yet, go ahead and choose the opposite of these predictions...you'll do better, I promise. It's a great time of year.